Flow from the higher rates of production
While increased production of all forms of petroleum, from crude oil to liquefied gas is well understood what the Citi team has done is identify the economy-wide changes which will flow from the higher rates of production.
The most obvious benefit is the elimination of a liquid fuels import bill which had been costing the country $350 billion a year. By 2020, and perhaps earlier, that deficit will have flipped into an $84 billion liquid fuels surplus.
The effect on the current account deficit will be to drive it down from a 3.5% annual deficit to a 0.51% annual deficit by 2020.
Petroleum Reclaims Biggest Export Title
Among the many changes likely to flow from rising U.S. oil and gas production will be the return of petroleum as the country’s biggest single export.
“The U.S. has very rapidly become a powerhouse as an exporter of finished petroleum products, natural gas liquids, other oils including ethanol and yes, even crude oil, with gross exports expected to reach a combined 5 million barrels a day or more by the end of this year, up a stunning 4 million barrels a day since 2005,” Citi said.